Risk of "City Killer" Asteroid Impact Reduced to 0.001%

Tuesday 25 February 2025 - 16:06

A football field-sized asteroid that had posed a threat to Earth in 2032 is now considered to have an extremely low chance of impact. The European Space Agency (ESA) reported that the risk of the asteroid, 2024 YR4, hitting Earth has dropped to just 0.001%. Just one week ago, the probability stood at 3.1% according to NASA and 2.8% according to the ESA.

Fresh observations from telescopes worldwide have narrowed down the asteroid’s potential impact area, significantly reducing the chances of a direct hit. Consequently, the Torino Impact Hazard Scale rating for the asteroid now sits at zero, after being as high as level three just a week prior.

Discovered in December, asteroid 2024 YR4 is estimated to measure between 40 to 90 meters (130 to 300 feet) in diameter, a size large enough to cause widespread destruction. However, it now appears very likely that the asteroid will simply pass by Earth on its predicted path in December 2032, rather than colliding with our planet.

Despite the significant reduction in risk, the James Webb Space Telescope will continue to monitor the asteroid over the coming months. The planetary defense community has made strides in improving our defense capabilities, as evidenced by NASA’s successful 2022 DART mission, which altered the trajectory of a harmless asteroid by crashing a spacecraft into it.

ESA’s Richard Moissl expressed excitement over the experience of tracking the asteroid and ruling out its impact. He emphasized the need for further advancements in detection technology and mentioned new telescopes like Vera Rubin and Flyeye, as well as the planned NEOMIR early warning mission, which will enhance asteroid detection in the future.

The last significant asteroid risk, Apophis, occurred in 2004, when it briefly posed a 2.7% chance of striking Earth in 2029, but this was later ruled out with further observations.